Week of 28 October 2026

I know how unsettling it can feel to look at a full sales calendar and still wonder when the money will actually land. Revenue on an invoice is not the same as cash in your bank account, and when payments slip, the gap between those two can quietly grow into a serious strain.

As a bookkeeper and fractional CFO, I look at the systems behind those numbers: how invoices are issued, how overdue accounts are followed up, and whether a business owner can see a cash squeeze coming before it arrives.

But here’s the thing: you can’t control when the whole economy pays late. You can build a clearer, more consistent system for protecting your own cashflow.

Late payments are turning into a business-wide warning

CreditorWatch’s September Business Risk Index, covered by the ABC this week, puts hard numbers behind a pressure many owners already feel. Just 48% of invoices were paid on time, down from 58% a year earlier. Meanwhile, 10.1% were more than 60 days overdue, double last year’s 5% and the highest level in 8.5 years.

Trade payment defaults rose 26.1% year on year. ATO tax debt defaults in effect reached 37,577, up 20.7% in a year, with 2,024 new defaults lodged in September alone.

The pressure varies by industry, but it’s broad. Food and beverage services had almost 20% of invoices more than 60 days overdue. In construction, that share rose from 6% to 13%. Transport, manufacturing, utilities, retail and mining also recorded significant increases.

CreditorWatch chief executive Patrick Coghlan says businesses are not simply paying a few days later. More invoices are sliding into serious arrears. And with regulatory changes and cost pressures landing at the same time, cashflow has little room for error. The ABC also reported that 65% of surveyed small businesses were concerned about cashflow, while 38% had seen revenue fall compared with a year earlier.

Read the ABC’s report on economic pressure and regulatory change and CreditorWatch’s September payment data.

When late payment becomes common, receivables management is not just admin. It is a lifeline. In a client’s bookkeeping system, I want to see clear payment terms, an agreed follow-up rhythm, automated reminders that actually send, and a current view of which invoices are drifting towards 60 days overdue. For new customers, proportionate credit checks can help inform the terms you offer.

That’s the practical value of profit focused bookkeeping: not just recording what happened, but making it easier to act before a late invoice becomes a default.

Rate-hike risk makes this the week to stress-test cashflow

Markets have put the chance of a rate rise at more than 60% ahead of the RBA’s meeting next Tuesday, 3 November. It would be the fifth increase this year. Inflation was running at 4% in August, with newer data pending, and RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has described the outlook as “materially worse”.

That is a risk to plan around, not a decision already made. If rates rise, repayments on variable-rate borrowing could increase. At the same time, customers facing higher costs may take longer to pay or cut back their spending. Fuel and transport costs are another pressure point highlighted by Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis.

The ABC’s market update covers the market’s rate expectations, while its report on Andrew Hauser’s inflation warning explains the concern behind them.

A 13-week cashflow forecast turns that uncertainty into something you can examine. What happens if a key customer pays two weeks late? What if loan repayments increase? What commitments can you adjust without compromising your people, your quality or your values? A virtual CFO can help you test those scenarios before pressure builds.

A CGT change worth understanding if you’re building for an eventual sale

There is a longer-term planning opportunity for some business owners. The Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 1) Bill 2026 expands the aggregated turnover threshold for the small business 50% active asset CGT reduction from $2 million to $10 million. The change applies to assessments relating to the income year that includes 1 July 2027 and later years.

Important nuance: this is a targeted expansion of the 50% active asset reduction, not a change to every small business CGT concession. The 15-year exemption, retirement exemption and other concession pathways continue to have their own eligibility conditions, including the existing $2 million aggregated turnover test or the $6 million maximum net asset value test, as applicable.

If you hope to sell your business one day, the assets that qualify, how they are used, and the records that support their values matter. The Parliamentary Bill information and Rigby Cooke’s summary of the CGT reform explain the change and its timing. Confirm your eligibility and options with your own tax adviser before acting.

Five moves to make this week

1. Review every overdue invoice by Friday. Run an aged receivables report and list each invoice that is unpaid, disputed or approaching 60 days overdue. Contact the customer with a clear, respectful request for a payment date, and record the outcome and next follow-up date.

2. Set one collections rhythm and automate the routine. By the end of the week, document when reminders go out (for example, before the due date, just after it, and at agreed overdue intervals) and assign someone to review replies and exceptions weekly. Check that invoice terms are visible, reminders are working, and new-customer credit checks fit the size of the risk. Automation should make follow-up consistent, not impersonal.

3. Build a 13-week cashflow forecast before Tuesday’s RBA decision. Include expected customer receipts, wages, tax obligations, supplier payments and loan repayments. Compare a hold scenario with a possible rate rise, and note the specific point at which you would need to act. Keep it current as actual receipts come in.

4. Create an exit-readiness asset list this month. Record key business assets, ownership, business use, purchase or improvement records, and the date each was last valued. Flag gaps for your accountant or tax adviser. Clean books and current valuations do not guarantee a tax outcome or sale price, but they give you a stronger foundation for informed conversations.

5. Choose one margin or industry check to complete this week. Pick a service, product or project and compare its recent costs with what you charge; decide whether any change is needed before accepting more work on the same terms. Make the check specific to your business: construction owners can review progress billing and overdue project invoices; creative agencies can check whether retainers cover delivery time; medical and allied health practices can review outstanding patient or third-party balances; real estate businesses can examine the timing of management-fee receipts; hair and beauty salons can review booking and cancellation patterns. Set a 30-minute review in your calendar and record one next action.

Build wealth with clarity, not guilt

Wanting your business to make money is not selfish. Profit can give you choices: the ability to pay yourself fairly, support your team, invest in better systems and build something valuable for the future. Wealth built with integrity is something to be proud of.

And guess what? You do not have to untangle every number alone. Ethical CFO offers bookkeeping for small business and virtual CFO services to help you see what the numbers are telling you and take the next step with confidence.

Let’s take the financial admin off your to-do list. Book a strategy call.

This article is general information only and is not financial, legal or tax advice. Rates, eligibility rules and business circumstances can change. Speak with your lender and qualified tax or financial advisers before making decisions.