There’s a particular kind of pressure that arrives before a big sales event: the feeling that you need to order more, discount harder and keep up with everyone else. Before committing your cash, or borrowing more, it’s worth pausing to ask a calmer question: what would this promotion actually do to your profit and cashflow?

Black Friday is on Friday 27 November. That gives Australian businesses less than three weeks to prepare. And a new Xero survey suggests plenty are getting ready: 53% of Australian small businesses plan to take part in Black Friday or Cyber Monday this year, up from 43% in 2025.

But here’s the number I’d want every business owner to look at before placing a stock order: of businesses that had taken part before, 55% said they had used credit or deferred payments to fund extra stock or staff.

That doesn’t make borrowing automatically wrong. It does make it a decision to run the numbers on first.

What the Xero research says, and what it doesn’t

In its 6 November media release, Xero reported that businesses who had participated before used a mix of funding options:

• 29% used business credit cards.
• 25% used supplier terms or buy-now-pay-later.
• 22% used an overdraft or business loan.
• 12% delayed paying other bills or suppliers.

These options may overlap; they aren’t separate slices that add up to 55%. The research, based on a survey of 500 Australian small-business owners and senior decision-makers, is a useful prompt to examine your own plan, not a prediction of what your sales will be.

The coverage from Inside Small Business and retailbiz also highlights the tension: a sales event may bring customers in, but discounts and extra costs can squeeze margins.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank raised the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.85% on 3 November, in a 6–3 decision. The RBA’s statement sets out the decision; the ABC’s coverage described it as an 18-year high. The cash rate is not the rate your business will necessarily pay on a credit card, overdraft or loan. Your actual cost depends on your lender, facility and fees. But when finance is more expensive, the cost of carrying stock on borrowed money deserves a closer look.

First, what might borrowed stock cost?

Here’s a clearly illustrative example. Suppose a business borrows $10,000 to fund stock and the facility charges an assumed 18% annual interest rate. If the full amount stays outstanding for 60 days, simple interest would be about $296:

$10,000 × 18% × 60 ÷ 365 = about $296

That’s before any establishment, account or transaction fees. The assumed 18% is for illustration only, not a quoted or typical rate. Check your own facility’s rate and charges. If the balance is repaid sooner or drawn down gradually, the interest will differ.

The important question isn’t simply “Can I get the stock?” It’s “Can the additional profit from selling it cover the funding cost, and still leave enough cash for wages, tax and regular bills?”

Check the margin before you discount

A discount can boost sales and still leave you with less money. Start with the unit economics: what comes in from each sale, and what goes out to make and complete it?

For a simple example, assume a product sells for $120 excluding GST, costs $60 to buy and has $5 of other variable selling costs. At full price, that leaves $55 contribution before overheads and tax.

A 25% discount brings the sale price to $90. If payment fees are 2% of the sale, that fee falls from $2.40 to $1.80. The contribution becomes $28.20: $90 less $60 stock cost and $1.80 payment fee.

You’d need to sell almost twice as many units at the discounted price to generate the same total contribution as selling at full price. And this example still leaves out staffing, delivery, returns, storage and borrowing costs. Your own result could be very different.

Check the figures on a GST-exclusive basis and use your real landed product cost, including relevant freight and duties. Then ask:

• What is my contribution per sale at the planned discount?
• How many extra units must I sell to make the promotion worthwhile?
• What happens if sales are lower than forecast, or customers buy only discounted items?
• After stock, fees, wages and finance costs, is there enough cash left for the next month?

CFO lens: build a 13-week view before placing the order

As a bookkeeper and fractional CFO, when we examine a client’s promotion plan, we look beyond the projected sales total. We look at when the cash moves.

Stock may need to be paid for weeks before customers buy it. Staff costs can arrive before the busy weekend. Card settlements might follow sales by days. Supplier terms can make the first few weeks feel comfortable, then leave a larger bill just as the festive period ends.

Put the proposed order into a 13-week cashflow forecast and compare three scenarios: expected sales, stronger sales and weaker sales. Include the order deposit and final payment, payroll, supplier bills, loan repayments, GST and other known commitments. Note when customer money is likely to reach your bank account, not just when a sale is recorded.

If the weaker-sales version leaves you unable to pay routine expenses, that’s useful information before you commit. You might reduce the order, negotiate delivery in stages, use a smaller discount or decide the promotion doesn’t suit this year.

This is what practical virtual CFO services can help with: turning financial information into a decision you can act on. It also builds a clearer picture of how your business performs: useful for planning, funding conversations and future sale or succession readiness. A strong sales weekend matters. So does a business that can meet its obligations afterwards.

Bookkeeping lens: make sure the books show the whole cost

Borrowing and deferred payments can make stock feel cheaper today than it really is. Accurate, timely bookkeeping helps reveal the full picture.

Check that credit-card purchases, overdraft draws and repayments are recorded against the right accounts. Reconcile supplier invoices to stock received, and record payment terms so you can see when bills actually fall due. For buy-now-pay-later or other deferred-payment arrangements, capture the transaction fees and charges too, not only the amount paid for the goods.

Then compare the promotion’s sales with its stock costs and related expenses. If fees, freight or extra staff sit in different places in your records, the promotion can look more profitable than it was.

Your accountant or bookkeeper can help confirm the right treatment for your arrangements. And while you’re checking upcoming obligations: the October monthly BAS has a standard due date of 21 November for monthly reporters; as that date falls on a Saturday in 2026, it moves to Monday 23 November. If you lodge through a registered agent, the ATO generally gives you extra time, but it’s worth confirming your own date rather than assuming it. Payment method doesn’t change the need to plan for the bill.

Systems lens: give yourself a weekly cashflow rhythm

A spreadsheet can be enough. What matters is having a simple, repeatable way to notice when stock spending is running ahead of sales.

Set one weekly check-in through the festive period. Review opening bank cash, sales received, stock paid for, supplier bills due and the forecast closing balance. Compare actual results with your expected scenario and adjust orders or spending early if the pattern changes.

One system worth automating before 27 November: a weekly reminder to update your cashflow tracker and review stock spend against sales. Link it to the person responsible for the numbers, keep the figures together in one shared place, and document the steps so the check doesn’t depend on someone remembering. The business.gov.au cashflow guidance recommends forecasting cash coming in and going out; its advice on inventory management can also help you think through demand and stock levels.

Five moves to make this week

1. Set a stock-order limit. By the end of the week, decide the maximum you can commit without putting wages, tax or essential bills at risk.
2. Calculate your discounted contribution. For your top three promotional products, write down the GST-exclusive sale price, landed cost, selling fees and other variable costs.
3. Price the finance. Check the actual interest rate, fees and repayment dates for any credit, supplier terms or deferred-payment option you’re considering.
4. Run three cashflow scenarios. Add the proposed stock order to a 13-week forecast and test expected, strong and weak sales.
5. Schedule the weekly review. Put a 15-minute cashflow and stock check in the calendar, assign an owner and set up the reminder before the sales period begins.

Black Friday can be a useful opportunity. You don’t need to avoid credit on principle, or discount just because everyone else is. Make the choice with your real margins, the repayment dates and the cash your business needs next. If you’d like help untangling those numbers, let’s take it off your to-do list.